More than half of voters now believe Ed Miliband will be the next prime minister either in a majority Labour government or as the biggest party in a coalition, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.

When voters were asked what they thought was the most likely outcome of the next election, 29% predicted a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, while 25% expected Miliband’s party to win an overall majority.

By contrast, just 9% of voters expected an outright Conservative majority in 2015, with 16% expecting the Tories to be the largest party in another hung parliament.

Among Labour supporters 49% said they expected their party to win outright, while 33% expected Miliband to lead a coalition government. This mean 82% of Labour supporters now believe Miliband will enter Downing Street.

Opinium/Observer poll
Graphic: Opinium/Observer

Optimism is in shorter supply among Tories. Some 28% of Conservative supporters said they expected a Tory majority, while 32% expected David Cameron to be in charge in another hung parliament.

The poll puts Labour on 38% (down 1% on a fortnight ago), the Conservatives on 28% (up 1%), Ukip on 16% (-1%) and the Liberal Democrats on 9% (up 1%).

All three party leaders have seen their personal ratings improve since the last poll, with Miliband now having a net score of -14%, Cameron -23% and Nick Clegg -45%.

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,958 adults aged 18+ from 19 March to 21 March 2013. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria

Poll shows 54% of voters expect Ed Miliband to be next prime minister – The Guardian
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